Markets in March - Mayhem, Madness and Meltdown

The markets all over the globe have been bleeding heavily but it's been complete decimation in the Indian bourses. Ever since the news of the war, the markets have been falling relentlessly with no respite whatsoever. This is a bit disappointing considering that except Indian market, all other major markets did see a rise on the upside up until the news of the war. The market here had touched a gold standard mark of 26,277.35 in September 2024 and been meandering around the same levels for all of 2025 and taking 14 months to finally reclaim that mark only towards end of 2025 to be precise on 27th Nov 2025. 

Before coming to the denting impact of March 2026, briefly reprising the summary of events playing up until the news of the notorious war breaking out in order to map levels to see how much the central Nifty index has been put on brakes. After the high created on Sep 27th 2024 which was the figure of 26,277.35, the Nifty nosedived all the way to 21,743.65 on the 7th of April 2025 on the back of the hullabaloo caused by the news of tariff. That translated in a drop of over 4500 points (4533.70 exactly) shedding over 17% in the process.

However the index bounced back pretty sharply from there on to quickly gain lost ground though however getting back the All Time High value was still quite a task and it managed to finally get there around 8 months from that hollow point to take out the earlier high in end of 2025. Nifty registered a high of 26,325.80 on the 1st of December 2025 which was not even 50 points higher than previous high in Sep 2024 and kept chirping around the same levels without usurping for the whole of Dec 2025.

Finally during the first week of the month in 2026, Nifty finally scaled all time high again and reached a pivotal mark of 26,373.20 on 5th Jan 2026. This seemed like auspicious times were ahead especially with the central index hitting new high right at the beginning of the year. This high though incidentally wasn't even 100 points away from the highs made over 15 months back in Sep 2024 (26,277.35).

Normally when new highs are made after a prolonged time, you would normally see a euphoria effect giving it the pedal in gathering and gaining momentum to rise up much further. But sadly in the case of Nifty it didn't happen. After the sacrosanct point hit on 5th of Jan 2026, index was just lurking around this corner and in fact drifted down to hit a low of 24,571.75 on Budget Day Feb 1st 2026. This was a fall of 1800 points but however the markets protected that level and ensured it doesn't hit rock bottom any further. However the levels of 26,000 continued to elude and the markets closed the month of February 2026 on 25,178.65 which was off the highs by roughly 1200 points.

March witnessed a monumental rout with the news of the war being out on the last weekend of February. Right on the first session in March, the index slipped below 25,000 levels just barely protecting the Budget Day lows of 24,571. It didn't take long as just on the next session, that hold was tumbled and and in just couple of more sessions the mark of 24,000 was eviscerated. The madness didn't just stop at the 23,000 levels as by mid of March, Nifty even slipped below that to hit the 22,000 range. From touching a low of 22,930.35 on 19th March, it rebounded again beyond 23,000 again only to be sold into heavily breaking even the 22,500 barrier to register a new low of 22,471.25 on the 23rd of March 2026. There was a small internal bounce immediately with Nifty capturing almost 1000 points very soon to touch a high of 23,465.35 on 25th March but a disastrous Friday of 27th March yielded Nifty to again fall below the 23000 mark to levels of 22,800 though slightly higher than the lowest levels of 22,471.25. And then finally on the last session of the month on 30th March, that level was sliced nonchalantly like a knife on butter falling much below to register an intraday low of 22,283.85 before finally closing proceedings of this wretched month at 22,331.40.

March has been a month laden with madness a plenty. From starting the month above 25,000 levels (25,178.65), it has hit a low of 22,283.85 shedding almost 3000 points off the table. Considering the recent all time high of 26,373.20 on 5th Jan 2026, the fall has now mounted to over 4000 points (4089.35 points). There were many significant down days in this month with single sessions chopping off well in excess of over 300 points which didn't even seem like a misnomer and felt like a regular occurrence. The huge gap downs almost regularly was really daunting. Listing briefly the tormenting days in March which saw the Nifty bleed mercilessly. 10 of the 19 sessions in March 2026 saw a bludgeon in extravagance of 300 points in a single day's trade.

- Monday 2nd March - 312.95 points
- Wednesday 4th March - 385.20 points
- Friday 6th March - 315.45 points
- Monday 9th March - 422.40 points
- Wednesday 11th March - 394.75 points
- Friday 13th March - 488.05 points
- Thursday 19th March - 775.65 points
- Monday 23rd March - 601.85 points
- Friday 27th March - 486.85 points
- Monday 30th March - 488.20 points

Thus, from the above it's easily decodable that 10 of the sessions has yielded cuts in excess of 300 points on a single day and it's only been intensifying further along the way. It's been such a brutal month tainted with shocks aplenty almost on an everyday basis. You will seldom see such violent moves on an everyday basis but that was literally the scene all through March. In the 19 sessions at play in the month of March, there was a movement of 1% or more on almost every single session which was truly unprecedented. There were however 2 back to back sessions of the index also registering plus 400 points each on both 24th and 25th March on account of war tension slightly easing but it was short lived as the Friday on 27th after the holiday on Thursday saw a dramatic down side. On the whole it's been a very painful month for the markets and to accentuate matters further the series of gap downs being completely destructive affecting traders at large and also seeing holes on the investor portfolio.

There are 3 major reasons plaguing Nifty at the moment. One factor being the Indian currency being one of the worst performing currencies shedding oodles of value against the dollar, second being the imminent increase of crude prices due to the ongoing war crisis which has witnessed a sharp uptick in the crude commodity. India being a huge net importer of Crude is deeply under the pump due to this. Thirdly and most importantly from a market stand point is the excessive outflow of funds by Foreign Institutional Investors. They have been selling relentlessly with March seeing a selling figure in excess of a Lakh of crores which is one of the highest ever outgo in the history of Indian stock markets. All these 3 are worrying signs and of course the underlying war situation and company earnings also will have a bearing. But to stem the rot, these 3 factors need some easing out if the markets have to inch up higher.

Dollar - Reached highest ever peak of $95+ in March

Crude - Brent touched a high of $120 and is the highest ever since 2022

FII Selling - Touched monumental high of over 1 Lakh crores. Highest single month selling in history of over one lakh twenty thousand crores that translates to an average outgo of +6000 crores per session

Let's take a look at some of the levels to watch out which Nifty needs to protect and hold on to march forward. The All Time High is 26,373.20. The lowest point hit in March is 22,283.85. The next support is only at the psychological figure of 22,000. If that slips then levels of 21,743.65 will come into play which is the 52 week low of Nifty that it hit in April 2025 on the back of the tariff news. Next protection will be the mark of 21,281.45 which was where Nifty headed on the day of the result of the Lok Sabha elections on 4th June 2024. Following this would be the lowest point of 2024 which was 21137.20 hit in early part of 2024 and closely on heels is the mark of around 21100 (21098) meaning Nifty would have shed 20% off it's recent highs and finally the ballpark number of 21000. If by chance Nifty slips below 21000, huge panic would be ignited as it will be trailing at a 3 year low giving the bonkers to all investors and mutual fund holders that use the SIP platform to invest. Sharing a summarised view of the levels below.

All Time Highs - 26373.20

March Low - 22,283.85

Levels on Downside:
- Psychological Barrier of 22,000.00
- Tariff Day Low Apr 7th 2025 - 21,743.65
- Election Results Day Low Jun 4th 2024 - 21,281.45
- Lowest point of 2024 - 21,137.20
- Bear Market Territory 20% downside - 21,098.60
- Finally closing on is figure of 21,000

Nifty needs to act smart and make sure it protects the 22,000 levels which is the immediate hurdle. There is a high likelihood of getting there if the war tension doesn't recede. Let's hope the bottom is near and Nifty gets back on track. Getting back past glory levels is certainly going to take time considering the inherent implications but at least for the immediate set up Nifty should ensure as to not keeping on breaking lows on an everyday basis. What will eventually happen will only be decided by the outcome of the markets. For now it's wait and watch.

March 2026 will go down as one of the worst months ever in the history of Indian stock market. It's easily the most burning as exactly 6 years prior in March 2020 was when the impact of Covid hit the world at large with stocks all over the globe falling like nine pins gashing leaks across from all directions. A lot of events in March 2026 happened to be eerily similar as even some of the heavy down days matched with exact dates as of March 2020 which was pretty spooky to say the least. March 2026 has been a month of mayhem, madness and meltdown akin to the larger fiasco that took place in March 2020. Let's hope the situation only gets better from here on in and will see how the Nifty shapes up going forward.

Nifty 50's April Acrobatics - Taking everyone for a ride

The month of April has been a watershed month for the Indian markets. The moves that usually get witnessed over a year's time has seen it all play out just in this month of April. The volatility in the Indian markets have been kind of replicated by markets all over the globe but the Indian indices have been special in the sense that they started running up immediately after being bruised & battered which has not exactly been the case with the markets worldwide. The recovery has been truly unprecedented considering how languishing at the bottom the Indian benchmark index was for months on the trot.

After 5 months of continuous down run witnessed from Oct'24 to Feb'25, the month of March saw a turn in direction with the Nifty finally closing positive in the 6th month running. March too didn't begin well as the Nifty finally broke the resistance of 22,000 which it was holding tightly for dear life. It touched an intra day low of 21,964.60 on the 4th of March and from there on it was a stellar run and not even once was 22,000 breached again after that session. In fact Nifty raced well past 23,000 to reach a high of 23,869.60 on the 25th March before tapering off a bit to close the month at 23,519.35 on the 28th of March. 29th March was a national holiday and 30th/31st happened to be the weekend. Thus it felt that Nifty had finally broken the shackles after 5 continuous months of down performance and March was indeed very welcoming for the Indian bourses. It also kind of signalled that the low point of sub 22,000 wouldn't be reached again for this year especially on the back of a very strong closing in March well above 23,500.

However what April taught is never speak too soon and never come to any conclusions especially when it comes to the Indian markets. Markets have their own plans which no market mogul is ever able to predict and always plays it's own tricks and games which seems beyond the realms of comprehension of the common market expert. When April was expected to be a month of consolidation and slowly build on to the gains of March, it just took it's own juxtaposed jump in a convoluted direction doing all sorts of crazy things which only the markets can think of doing.

Early in the month of April, President Donald Trump announced tariff measures extorting high import duties on all countries and India wasn't spared from the list. Markets nosedived to cave beyond imagination. The damage was extremely severe on the US markets but all markets unanimously followed suit crating big time. That holy grail figure of 21,964.60 was taken out in a whimper with Nifty registering a newer low of 21,743.65 on the 7th of April. This was unimaginable as the markets started the month well over 23,500 and to fall about 1800 points in a jiffy was unfathomable. It was destruction of the highest order with stocks tumbling and taking a beating black & blue. It seemed like the worst was upon us. And then miraculously everything changed within a blink of an eyelid. From the bottom on 7th April, Nifty recovered a fair bit to close above the mark of 22,000 on the very same session and then for the whole month not even once was 22,000 tested again. In a week's time on 15th April the mark of 23,000 was taken out and the adrenaline rush didn't end here as another coveted landmark of 24,000 was broken with authority on the 21st of April. The Nifty went up all the way till 24,457.65 on the 29th of April and finally ended the month on the 30th of April by closing out at 24,334.20.

When one compares the end of March with end of April, an 800 point uptick was all that was noticed which appears to be very normal. But the pandemonium caused due to the extreme wild swings is what makes April a month to remember at the bourses. Opening at 23,500 levels it went all the way down to 21,700 levels shedding 1800 points only to bounce back like a tornado all the way up to 24,400 levels gaining 2700 points before finally closing the month at sub 24,300 levels. The difference between the lowest and highest point on the Nifty was a whopping 2714 points. The whole seesaw from low to high happened in a matter of just 14 sessions causing turbulence of the highest kind. With all the carnage unravelling within the first week of April, it looked like March was just an aberration and a repeat of the downward pattern prior to March seemed imminent with 1800 points taken out. And then to rise like a phoenix 2700 points from the bottom was simply unimaginable taking the total swing for the month to a colossal 4500 points. The Nifty 50 index virtually swayed, slipped, swung, somersaulted, swash buckled, steamrolled and switched salvo in what turned out to be an unparalleled month of April.

At the end of April, just a reaction of Phew! would be voiced out by all and sundry at the markets. It was a roller-coaster of epic proportions. At this juncture with the Nifty acquiring over 2500 points from the lowest point of 21,743.65 it may look like a retest of the recent lows is completely out of the woods but you never ever can vouch with certainty especially with this kind of maniacal market moves. At least for now it seems as if the worst is behind us. There is still 8 months remaining this year to see if Nifty can reclaim it's all time high of 26,277.35 registered on 27th Sep 2024. As of now it's just a trickle under 2000 points but the way markets are making all these zigzag patterns it's never easy to say what exactly will pan out. Until then let's just put on our buckle and enjoy this crazy wild joy ride and keep expecting the unexpected as the markets continue to do their thing!