Nifty 50's April Acrobatics - Taking everyone for a ride

The month of April has been a watershed month for the Indian markets. The moves that usually get witnessed over a year's time has seen it all play out just in this month of April. The volatility in the Indian markets have been kind of replicated by markets all over the globe but the Indian indices have been special in the sense that they started running up immediately after being bruised & battered which has not exactly been the case with the markets worldwide. The recovery has been truly unprecedented considering how languishing at the bottom the Indian benchmark index was for months on the trot.

After 5 months of continuous down run witnessed from Oct'24 to Feb'25, the month of March saw a turn in direction with the Nifty finally closing positive in the 6th month running. March too didn't begin well as the Nifty finally broke the resistance of 22,000 which it was holding tightly for dear life. It touched an intra day low of 21,964.60 on the 4th of March and from there on it was a stellar run and not even once was 22,000 breached again after that session. In fact Nifty raced well past 23,000 to reach a high of 23,869.60 on the 25th March before tapering off a bit to close the month at 23,519.35 on the 28th of March. 29th March was a national holiday and 30th/31st happened to be the weekend. Thus it felt that Nifty had finally broken the shackles after 5 continuous months of down performance and March was indeed very welcoming for the Indian bourses. It also kind of signalled that the low point of sub 22,000 wouldn't be reached again for this year especially on the back of a very strong closing in March well above 23,500.

However what April taught is never speak too soon and never come to any conclusions especially when it comes to the Indian markets. Markets have their own plans which no market mogul is ever able to predict and always plays it's own tricks and games which seems beyond the realms of comprehension of the common market expert. When April was expected to be a month of consolidation and slowly build on to the gains of March, it just took it's own juxtaposed jump in a convoluted direction doing all sorts of crazy things which only the markets can think of doing.

Early in the month of April, President Donald Trump announced tariff measures extorting high import duties on all countries and India wasn't spared from the list. Markets nosedived to cave beyond imagination. The damage was extremely severe on the US markets but all markets unanimously followed suit crating big time. That holy grail figure of 21,964.60 was taken out in a whimper with Nifty registering a newer low of 21,743.65 on the 7th of April. This was unimaginable as the markets started the month well over 23,500 and to fall about 1800 points in a jiffy was unfathomable. It was destruction of the highest order with stocks tumbling and taking a beating black & blue. It seemed like the worst was upon us. And then miraculously everything changed within a blink of an eyelid. From the bottom on 7th April, Nifty recovered a fair bit to close above the mark of 22,000 on the very same session and then for the whole month not even once was 22,000 tested again. In a week's time on 15th April the mark of 23,000 was taken out and the adrenaline rush didn't end here as another coveted landmark of 24,000 was broken with authority on the 21st of April. The Nifty went up all the way till 24,457.65 on the 29th of April and finally ended the month on the 30th of April by closing out at 24,334.20.

When one compares the end of March with end of April, an 800 point uptick was all that was noticed which appears to be very normal. But the pandemonium caused due to the extreme wild swings is what makes April a month to remember at the bourses. Opening at 23,500 levels it went all the way down to 21,700 levels shedding 1800 points only to bounce back like a tornado all the way up to 24,400 levels gaining 2700 points before finally closing the month at sub 24,300 levels. The difference between the lowest and highest point on the Nifty was a whopping 2714 points. The whole seesaw from low to high happened in a matter of just 14 sessions causing turbulence of the highest kind. With all the carnage unravelling within the first week of April, it looked like March was just an aberration and a repeat of the downward pattern prior to March seemed imminent with 1800 points taken out. And then to rise like a phoenix 2700 points from the bottom was simply unimaginable taking the total swing for the month to a colossal 4500 points. The Nifty 50 index virtually swayed, slipped, swung, somersaulted, swash buckled, steamrolled and switched salvo in what turned out to be an unparalleled month of April.

At the end of April, just a reaction of Phew! would be voiced out by all and sundry at the markets. It was a roller-coaster of epic proportions. At this juncture with the Nifty acquiring over 2500 points from the lowest point of 21,743.65 it may look like a retest of the recent lows is completely out of the woods but you never ever can vouch with certainty especially with this kind of maniacal market moves. At least for now it seems as if the worst is behind us. There is still 8 months remaining this year to see if Nifty can reclaim it's all time high of 26,277.35 registered on 27th Sep 2024. As of now it's just a trickle under 2000 points but the way markets are making all these zigzag patterns it's never easy to say what exactly will pan out. Until then let's just put on our buckle and enjoy this crazy wild joy ride and keep expecting the unexpected as the markets continue to do their thing!