Markets in April - Recovery & Retracement Levels

After the much maligned market performance in March, there was a swift recovery seen across the bourses in the month of April. However there is still a direction lacking whether market intends to go on the top side and break the all time highs or meander back towards the lowest point in early April and go down even further. 

April however didn't start off on the right footing. After one felt that the March lows of 22,283.85 would not be shaved off and be held strongly came a sharp fall on the Thursday of April 2nd 2026 when the Nifty slit through all the support levels and slipped to a new low of 22,182.55. Miraculously after falling almost 500 points from previous day (April 1st) closing of 22,679.40, the market suddenly much against all odds moved at a steroid pace to ace up 600 points on the same session to reach a day's high of 22,782.30 before finally settling in at 22,713.10 and end the day in the green. Similar scenes were witnessed in the Bank Nifty also as it broke even the barrier of 50,000 to hit an intraday low of 49,954.85 before making a rapid sharp upward detour to close in the green. The Bank Nifty had almost shed 12,000 points from its recent high of 61,764.85 leading to tank almost 20% before the recovery started rolling in.

The fall on that day was expected due to soaring geo political tensions but the recovery on the same day was pretty sensational. Another day in April which saw high momentum was on Wednesday April 8th when the markets shot up almost 900 points intraday to touch the landmark of 24,000 on the back of potential news flow relating to the end of the war. The first 5 sessions of Nifty all ended up in the green in April which was a welcome relief considering the immense slaughter which the markets underwent in March. The highest point reached in April was 24,601.70 leading to a rise of over 2400 points from the low made of 22,182.55. The last week in April saw some profit taking largely on account of impending tensions again starting to invigorate in relation to the war leading to higher crude oil prices and also the currency again shaving off it's gains. 

The Nifty finally ended it's mark on the 30th April at 23,997.55. Coincidentally on the 8th of April when the markets hit a euphoria due to news trickling in on account of the war supposedly ending, the close was at 23,997.35. There were over 15 sessions after that and the Nifty closed absolutely ditto flat with no change whatsoever to end the month at 23,997.55.

Thus, to summarise the month of April we can say that the start of the month was very positive but it tapered off as the month proceeded and toned down without really indicating a direction. There are still renewed hopes of a revival with the Strait of Hormuz expected to be opened anytime ultimately resulting in the war officially coming to an end. However alternative statements being carried out are also causing fear with crude oil once again surging well past the $100 per barrel towards end of April and even almost hitting close to $120 at one stage. Thus market still seems directionless without not knowing which side to navigate.

With markets closing out April correctly at the ball park of 24,000 it's kind of right in the middle point from the all time high of 26,373.20 and recent April low of 22,182.55. Markets have to fall around 1800 points or 7 and half percentage to breach the low point. For gaining ground to reach the all time high touched on January 2026, markets have to climb up about 2400 points or approximately 10% from the current mark of 24,000.

Lets look at the upsides to watch out for and downsides to safeguard for the Nifty

Nifty All Time High: 26,373.20

April Low (2nd April 2026): 22,182.55

Difference in Points: 4190.65

Levels on Upside:
23.6% Retracement: 23,181.55 (22,182.55 + 4190.65*23.6%)
38.2% Retracement: 23,783.35 (22,182.55 + 4190.65*38.2%)
50.0% Retracement: 24,277.85 (22,182.55 + 4190.65*50.0%)
61.8% Retracement: 24,772.35 (22,182.55 + 4190.65*61.8%) 
78.6% Retracement: 25,476.40 (22,182.55 + 4190.65*78.6%)
100.0% Retracement (Current All Time High): 26,373.20 (22,182.55+4190.65*100.0%)

Based upon April high registered of 24,601.70, Nifty already surpassed the 23.6%, 38.2% and 50.0% retracement levels and was well on course towards 24,800 levels which is the 61.8% retracement levels but however a sharp pull back towards the latter end of the trading month brought down Nifty just sub under 24,000 levels.

Levels on Downside:
- Current Low on April 2nd 2026: 22,182.55
- Psychological Barrier mark: 22,000.00
- Tariff Day Low Apr 7th 2025: (Previous 52 week low): 21,743.65
- General Election Results Day Low on Jun 4th 2024: 21,281.45
- Lowest point of year 2024 (24th Jan 2024 during Adani Saga): 21,137.20
- Bear Market Territory 20% downside from top: 21,098.60
- Close on the heels is next psychological figure of: 21,000.00

As of end April, Nifty is well above the low which it registered at the beginning of the month. However caution needs to be exercised since if the war crisis continues to elongate, it will result in excessive oil prices perhaps even breaking record all time highs. The Indian currency also has again gotten weaker again getting back to 95 levels and not too far from reaching the 3 figure mark. The foreign institutional sell flows also need to be curbed. If all of these continue to compound in the negative zone, it may just open up the flood gates for the markets to crate heavy holes on the downside. Last year the low was hit on April 2025 and this year so far the low has been hit in April 2026. We have to wait and watch the direction markets take and how things will eventually pan out.

Nifty 50's April Acrobatics - Taking everyone for a ride

The month of April has been a watershed month for the Indian markets. The moves that usually get witnessed over a year's time has seen it all play out just in this month of April. The volatility in the Indian markets have been kind of replicated by markets all over the globe but the Indian indices have been special in the sense that they started running up immediately after being bruised & battered which has not exactly been the case with the markets worldwide. The recovery has been truly unprecedented considering how languishing at the bottom the Indian benchmark index was for months on the trot.

After 5 months of continuous down run witnessed from Oct'24 to Feb'25, the month of March saw a turn in direction with the Nifty finally closing positive in the 6th month running. March too didn't begin well as the Nifty finally broke the resistance of 22,000 which it was holding tightly for dear life. It touched an intra day low of 21,964.60 on the 4th of March and from there on it was a stellar run and not even once was 22,000 breached again after that session. In fact Nifty raced well past 23,000 to reach a high of 23,869.60 on the 25th March before tapering off a bit to close the month at 23,519.35 on the 28th of March. 29th March was a national holiday and 30th/31st happened to be the weekend. Thus it felt that Nifty had finally broken the shackles after 5 continuous months of down performance and March was indeed very welcoming for the Indian bourses. It also kind of signalled that the low point of sub 22,000 wouldn't be reached again for this year especially on the back of a very strong closing in March well above 23,500.

However what April taught is never speak too soon and never come to any conclusions especially when it comes to the Indian markets. Markets have their own plans which no market mogul is ever able to predict and always plays it's own tricks and games which seems beyond the realms of comprehension of the common market expert. When April was expected to be a month of consolidation and slowly build on to the gains of March, it just took it's own juxtaposed jump in a convoluted direction doing all sorts of crazy things which only the markets can think of doing.

Early in the month of April, President Donald Trump announced tariff measures extorting high import duties on all countries and India wasn't spared from the list. Markets nosedived to cave beyond imagination. The damage was extremely severe on the US markets but all markets unanimously followed suit crating big time. That holy grail figure of 21,964.60 was taken out in a whimper with Nifty registering a newer low of 21,743.65 on the 7th of April. This was unimaginable as the markets started the month well over 23,500 and to fall about 1800 points in a jiffy was unfathomable. It was destruction of the highest order with stocks tumbling and taking a beating black & blue. It seemed like the worst was upon us. And then miraculously everything changed within a blink of an eyelid. From the bottom on 7th April, Nifty recovered a fair bit to close above the mark of 22,000 on the very same session and then for the whole month not even once was 22,000 tested again. In a week's time on 15th April the mark of 23,000 was taken out and the adrenaline rush didn't end here as another coveted landmark of 24,000 was broken with authority on the 21st of April. The Nifty went up all the way till 24,457.65 on the 29th of April and finally ended the month on the 30th of April by closing out at 24,334.20.

When one compares the end of March with end of April, an 800 point uptick was all that was noticed which appears to be very normal. But the pandemonium caused due to the extreme wild swings is what makes April a month to remember at the bourses. Opening at 23,500 levels it went all the way down to 21,700 levels shedding 1800 points only to bounce back like a tornado all the way up to 24,400 levels gaining 2700 points before finally closing the month at sub 24,300 levels. The difference between the lowest and highest point on the Nifty was a whopping 2714 points. The whole seesaw from low to high happened in a matter of just 14 sessions causing turbulence of the highest kind. With all the carnage unravelling within the first week of April, it looked like March was just an aberration and a repeat of the downward pattern prior to March seemed imminent with 1800 points taken out. And then to rise like a phoenix 2700 points from the bottom was simply unimaginable taking the total swing for the month to a colossal 4500 points. The Nifty 50 index virtually swayed, slipped, swung, somersaulted, swash buckled, steamrolled and switched salvo in what turned out to be an unparalleled month of April.

At the end of April, just a reaction of Phew! would be voiced out by all and sundry at the markets. It was a roller-coaster of epic proportions. At this juncture with the Nifty acquiring over 2500 points from the lowest point of 21,743.65 it may look like a retest of the recent lows is completely out of the woods but you never ever can vouch with certainty especially with this kind of maniacal market moves. At least for now it seems as if the worst is behind us. There is still 8 months remaining this year to see if Nifty can reclaim it's all time high of 26,277.35 registered on 27th Sep 2024. As of now it's just a trickle under 2000 points but the way markets are making all these zigzag patterns it's never easy to say what exactly will pan out. Until then let's just put on our buckle and enjoy this crazy wild joy ride and keep expecting the unexpected as the markets continue to do their thing!