After the much maligned market performance in March, there was a swift recovery seen across the bourses in the month of April. However there is still a direction lacking whether market intends to go on the top side and break the all time highs or meander back towards the lowest point in early April and go down even further.
April however didn't start off on the right footing. After one felt that the March lows of 22,283.85 would not be shaved off and be held strongly came a sharp fall on the Thursday of April 2nd 2026 when the Nifty slit through all the support levels and slipped to a new low of 22,182.55. Miraculously after falling almost 500 points from previous day (April 1st) closing of 22,679.40, the market suddenly much against all odds moved at a steroid pace to ace up 600 points on the same session to reach a day's high of 22,782.30 before finally settling in at 22,713.10 and end the day in the green. Similar scenes were witnessed in the Bank Nifty also as it broke even the barrier of 50,000 to hit an intraday low of 49,954.85 before making a rapid sharp upward detour to close in the green. The Bank Nifty had almost shed 12,000 points from its recent high of 61,764.85 leading to tank almost 20% before the recovery started rolling in.
The fall on that day was expected due to soaring geo political tensions but the recovery on the same day was pretty sensational. Another day in April which saw high momentum was on Wednesday April 8th when the markets shot up almost 900 points intraday to touch the landmark of 24,000 on the back of potential news flow relating to the end of the war. The first 5 sessions of Nifty all ended up in the green in April which was a welcome relief considering the immense slaughter which the markets underwent in March. The highest point reached in April was 24,601.70 leading to a rise of over 2400 points from the low made of 22,182.55. The last week in April saw some profit taking largely on account of impending tensions again starting to invigorate in relation to the war leading to higher crude oil prices and also the currency again shaving off it's gains.
The Nifty finally ended it's mark on the 30th April at 23,997.55. Coincidentally on the 8th of April when the markets hit a euphoria due to news trickling in on account of the war supposedly ending, the close was at 23,997.35. There were over 15 sessions after that and the Nifty closed absolutely ditto flat with no change whatsoever to end the month at 23,997.55.
Thus, to summarise the month of April we can say that the start of the month was very positive but it tapered off as the month proceeded and toned down without really indicating a direction. There are still renewed hopes of a revival with the Strait of Hormuz expected to be opened anytime ultimately resulting in the war officially coming to an end. However alternative statements being carried out are also causing fear with crude oil once again surging well past the $100 per barrel towards end of April and even almost hitting close to $120 at one stage. Thus market still seems directionless without not knowing which side to navigate.
With markets closing out April correctly at the ball park of 24,000 it's kind of right in the middle point from the all time high of 26,373.20 and recent April low of 22,182.55. Markets have to fall around 1800 points or 7 and half percentage to breach the low point. For gaining ground to reach the all time high touched on January 2026, markets have to climb up about 2400 points or approximately 10% from the current mark of 24,000.
Lets look at the upsides to watch out for and downsides to safeguard for the Nifty
Nifty All Time High: 26,373.20
April Low (2nd April 2026): 22,182.55
Difference in Points: 4190.65
Levels on Upside:
23.6% Retracement: 23,181.55 (22,182.55 + 4190.65*23.6%)
38.2% Retracement: 23,783.35 (22,182.55 + 4190.65*38.2%)
50.0% Retracement: 24,277.85 (22,182.55 + 4190.65*50.0%)
61.8% Retracement: 24,772.35 (22,182.55 + 4190.65*61.8%)
78.6% Retracement: 25,476.40 (22,182.55 + 4190.65*78.6%)
100.0% Retracement (Current All Time High): 26,373.20 (22,182.55+4190.65*100.0%)
Based upon April high registered of 24,601.70, Nifty already surpassed the 23.6%, 38.2% and 50.0% retracement levels and was well on course towards 24,800 levels which is the 61.8% retracement levels but however a sharp pull back towards the latter end of the trading month brought down Nifty just sub under 24,000 levels.
Levels on Downside:
- Current Low on April 2nd 2026: 22,182.55
- Psychological Barrier mark: 22,000.00
- Tariff Day Low Apr 7th 2025: (Previous 52 week low): 21,743.65
- General Election Results Day Low on Jun 4th 2024: 21,281.45
- Lowest point of year 2024 (24th Jan 2024 during Adani Saga): 21,137.20
- Bear Market Territory 20% downside from top: 21,098.60
- Close on the heels is next psychological figure of: 21,000.00
As of end April, Nifty is well above the low which it registered at the beginning of the month. However caution needs to be exercised since if the war crisis continues to elongate, it will result in excessive oil prices perhaps even breaking record all time highs. The Indian currency also has again gotten weaker again getting back to 95 levels and not too far from reaching the 3 figure mark. The foreign institutional sell flows also need to be curbed. If all of these continue to compound in the negative zone, it may just open up the flood gates for the markets to crate heavy holes on the downside. Last year the low was hit on April 2025 and this year so far the low has been hit in April 2026. We have to wait and watch the direction markets take and how things will eventually pan out.
