The markets all over the globe have been bleeding heavily but it's been complete decimation in the Indian bourses. Ever since the news of the war, the markets have been falling relentlessly with no respite whatsoever. This is a bit disappointing considering that except Indian market, all other major markets did see a rise on the upside up until the news of the war. The market here had touched a gold standard mark of 26,277.35 in September 2024 and been meandering around the same levels for all of 2025 and taking 14 months to finally reclaim that mark only towards end of 2025 to be precise on 27th Nov 2025.
Before coming to the denting impact of March 2026, briefly reprising the summary of events playing up until the news of the notorious war breaking out in order to map levels to see how much the central Nifty index has been put on brakes. After the high created on Sep 27th 2024 which was the figure of 26,277.35, the Nifty nosedived all the way to 21,743.65 on the 7th of April 2025 on the back of the hullabaloo caused by the news of tariff. That translated in a drop of over 4500 points (4533.70 exactly) shedding over 17% in the process.
However the index bounced back pretty sharply from there on to quickly gain lost ground though however getting back the All Time High value was still quite a task and it managed to finally get there around 8 months from that hollow point to take out the earlier high in end of 2025. Nifty registered a high of 26,325.80 on the 1st of December 2025 which was not even 50 points higher than previous high in Sep 2024 and kept chirping around the same levels without usurping for the whole of Dec 2025.
Finally during the first week of the month in 2026, Nifty finally scaled all time high again and reached a pivotal mark of 26,373.20 on 5th Jan 2026. This seemed like auspicious times were ahead especially with the central index hitting new high right at the beginning of the year. This high though incidentally wasn't even 100 points away from the highs made over 15 months back in Sep 2024 (26,277.35).
Normally when new highs are made after a prolonged time, you would normally see a euphoria effect giving it the pedal in gathering and gaining momentum to rise up much further. But sadly in the case of Nifty it didn't happen. After the sacrosanct point hit on 5th of Jan 2026, index was just lurking around this corner and infact drifted down to hit a low of 24,571.75 on Budget Day Feb 1st 2026. This was a fall of 1800 points but however the markets protected that level and ensured it doesn't hit rock bottom any further. However the levels of 26,000 continued to elude and the markets closed the month of February 2026 on 25,178.65 which was off the highs by roughly 1200 points.
March witnessed a monumental rout with the news of the war being out on the last weekend of February. Right on the first session in March, the index slipped below 25,000 levels just barely protecting the Budget Day lows of 24,571. It didn't take long as just on the next session, that hold was tumbled and and in just couple of more sessions the mark of 24,000 was eviscerated. The madness didn't just stop at the 23,000 levels as by mid of March, Nifty even slipped below that to hit the 22,000 range. From touching a low of 22,930.35 on 19th March, it rebounded again beyond 23,000 again only to be sold into heavily breaking even the 22,500 barrier to register a new low of 22,471.25 on the 23rd of March 2026. There was a small internal bounce immediately with Nifty capturing almost 1000 points very soon to touch a high of 23,465.35 on 25th March but a disastrous Friday of 27th March yielded Nifty to again fall below the 23000 mark to levels of 22,800 though slightly higher than the lowest levels of 22,471.25. And then finally on the last session of the month on 30th March, that level was sliced nonchalantly like a knife on butter falling much below to register an intraday low of 22,283.85 before finally closing proceedings of this wretched month at 22,331.40.
March has been a month laden with madness a plenty. From starting the month above 25,000 levels (25,178.65), it has hit a low of 22,283.85 shedding almost 3000 points off the table. Considering the recent all time high of 26,373.20 on 5th Jan 2026, the fall has now mounted to over 4000 points (4089.35 points). There were many significant down days in this month with single sessions chopping off well in excess of over 300 points which didn't even seem like a misnomer and felt like a regular occurrence. The huge gap downs almost regularly was really daunting. Listing briefly the tormenting days in March which saw the Nifty bleed mercilessly. 10 of the 19 sessions in March 2026 saw a bludgeon in extravagance of 300 points in a single day's trade.
Monday 2nd March - 312.95 points
Wednesday 4th March - 385.20 points
Friday 6th March - 315.45 points
Monday 9th March - 422.40 points
Wednesday 11th March - 394.75 points
Friday 13th March - 488.05 points
Thursday 19th March - 775.65 points
Monday 23rd March - 601.85 points
Friday 27th March - 486.85 points
Monday 30th March - 488.20 points
Thus, from the above it's easily decodable that 10 of the sessions has yielded cuts in excess of 300 points on a single day and it's only been intensifying further along the way. It's been such a brutal month tainted with shocks aplenty almost on an everyday basis. You will seldom see such violent moves on an everyday basis but that was literally the scene all through March. In the 19 sessions at play in the month of March, there was a movement of 1% or more on almost every single session which was truly unprecedented. There were however 2 back to back sessions of the index also registering plus 400 points each on both 24th and 25th March on account of war tension slightly easing but it was short lived as the Friday on 27th after the holiday on Thursday saw a dramatic down side. On the whole it's been a very painful month for the markets and to accentuate matters further the series of gap downs being completely destructive affecting traders at large and also seeing holes on the investor portfolio.
There are 3 major reasons plagueing Nifty at the moment. One factor being the Indian currency being one of the worst performing currencies shedding oodles of value against the dollar, second being the imminent increase of crude prices due to the ongoing war crisis which has witnessed a sharp uptick in the crude commodity. India being a huge net importer of Crude is deeply under the pump due to this. Thirdly and most importantly from a market stand point is the excessive outflow of funds by Foreign Institutional Investors. They have been selling relentlessly with March seeing a selling figure in excess of a Lakh of crores which is one of the highest ever outgo in the history of Indian stock markets. All these 3 are worrying signs and of course the underlying war situation and company earnings also will have a bearing. But to stem the rot, these 3 factors need some easing out if the markets have to inch up higher.
Dollar - Reached highest ever peak of $95+ in March
Crude - Brent touched a high of $120 and is the highest ever since 2022
FII Selling - Touched monumental high of over 1 Lakh crores. Highest single month selling in history of over one lakh twenty thousand crores that translates to an average outgo of +6000 crores per session
Let's take a look at some of the levels to watch out which Nifty needs to protect and hold on to march forward. The All Time High is 26,373.20. The lowest point hit in March is 22,471.25. The next support is only at the psychological figure of 22,000. If that slips then levels of 21,743.65 will come into play which is the 52 week low of Nifty that it hit in April 2025 on the back of the tariff news. Next protection will be the mark of 21,281.45 which was where Nifty headed on the day of the result of the Lok Sabha elections on 4th June 2024. Following this would be the lowest point of 2024 which was 21137.20 hit in early part of 2024 and closely on heels is the mark of around 21100 (21098) meaning Nifty would have shed 20% off it's recent highs and finally the ballpark number of 21000. If by chance Nifty slips below 21000, huge panic would be ignited as it will be trailing at a 3 year low giving the bonkers to all investors and mutual fund holders that use the SIP platform to invest. Sharing a summarised view of the levels below.
All Time Highs - 26373.20
March Low - 22,283.85
Levels on Downside:
- Psychological Barrier of 22,000.00
- Tariff Day Low Apr 7th 2025 - 21,743.65
- Election Results Day Low Jun 4th 2024 - 21,281.45
- Lowest point of 2024 - 21,137.20
- Bear Market Territory 20% downside - 21,098.60
- Finally closing on is figure of 21,000
Nifty needs to act smart and make sure it protects the 22,000 levels which is the immediate hurdle. There is a high likelihood of getting there if the war tension doesn't recede. Let's hope the bottom is near and Nifty gets back on track. Getting back past glory levels is certainly going to take time considering the inherent implications but at least for the immediate set up Nifty should ensure as to not keeping on breaking lows on an everyday basis. What will eventually happen will only be decided by the outcome of the markets. For now it's wait and watch.
March 2026 will go down as one of the worst months ever in the history of Indian stock market. It's easily the most burning as exactly 6 years prior in March 2020 was when the impact of Covid hit the world at large with stocks all over the globe falling like nine pins gashing leakes across from all directions. A lot of events in March 2026 happened to be eerily similar as even some of the heavy down days matched with exact dates as of March 2020 which was pretty spooky to say the least. March 2026 has been a month of mayhem, madness and meltdown akin to the larger fiasco that took place in March 2020. Let's hope the situation only gets better from here on in and will see how the Nifty shapes up going forward.
